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Europe 18, Greece 13, Korea 12, China 11, United States 9, Spain 6, Russia 5, Latin America 5, France 5, Brazil 5, Merkel 4, Etc. 4, Turkey 4, Italy 4, Ireland 3, Paul Volcker 3, Japan 3, India 3, Brussels 3, Germany 3,
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    January 28, 2013
    7:00 - 8:00am EST  

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be much better than it is this you. they're talking about growth in the order of 2.7% as against 2.5%. so we will have to see if those figures in a sense are correct. and those figures are pretty low when you take a look at economic growth. others have much higher figures as you know. i think it's very important that we see europe move ahead. europeans have this idea. i think they now -- the eurozone was made up of so-called developed countries, unlike latin america in the '80s and '90s, and asia in the asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, that any of the lessons a lot of people in this audience learned, you know, from those
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two crises, and other ones, turkey, i could run on, were not valid for them. because they were so-called developed economies. and so what i thought i would do here is just run through some of the lessons that we learned there that i think, unfortunately, shut up and looked at by the europeans. and they are only now starting to realize that they could have cut down the present negative situation because let's face it, europe as a whole, with a few exceptions, is in either a recession or stagnation. first, each country is unique. this is something they didn't want to see. greece adding the situation by longtime mismanagement on the fiscal side and raid the banks. in the case of ireland, it was the banks the drag the sovereign
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is -- sovereign as. in the case of portugal, with some portuguese in the audience here, it was basically a decade of no growth in portugal. in the case of spain, it was a bubble in real estate that was financed by mainly the savings and loan institutions, some of which have gone under, a number have gone under. and a government that basically drove up the deficit, and regional governments because regions are very important in spain, also drove up this problem with big deficits. and they weren't attended to. and so, in each one of these you have somewhat of a different reason. the case of italy, a debt to gdp of over 120%, and growing, and the lack of action and trying to
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do anything about it by the former government. he came in as a technician. technicians are great. whether it be greece or italy will be seen this. there'll be elections in italy and we will see how we does. but you need popular mandates to get changes really through. i'm encouraged with the ireland. they're making good progress getting back to the market but there's still a lot of problems. the latest victim is cyprus. the banks held a lot of greek paper. they ran up the deficit there, and so they are the latest bailout case that we are going to see. that each country is different, and that leads to what is the same, and that's contagion. europeans did not want to see that there was contagion at the time of greece. and no matter who you talk to
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with a few i think exceptions, policymakers, they thought they would be no contagion out of greece in 2010. well, we know there's been plenty of contagion. the minister of finance of germany an made a statement to a group of us in tokyo at the imf meetings there a couple months ago. when he was asked what was the biggest mistake you made so far in the european debt crisis, and he said we did not understand and did not accept the idea of contagion. and boy, europe has paid for that comment so has the world. remember connie is the most important finance minister in all of your. because german is bigger -- biggest economy. so i think contagion
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unfortunately is alive and well. my friend mario dropped he is talking about positive contagion. i certainly hope that he is right. i think one of the things i learned from my friend paul volcker, and i learned this early in the 1980s during the latin american debt crisis is that the timing is of the utmost importance because the longer you take to fix the situation, the worse it gets. and again there's been no sense of urgency or timing in europe up until very recently. the feeling was that the policymakers there, politicians had all the time in the world. and we see what that's brought. the growth, or lack thereof, in the area. so i think the timing really, when you announced timelines, you've got to live up to them. we still don't have important
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timelines that are being lived up to there. i think another one is, if we want a program in the country, austerity or better called reform program, we've got to make sure that the local populace of a country supports. and that's been a problem day one in a country like greece. i think this is somewhat better in portugal, better in ireland, but still having problems there. so you've got to get the people support. don't we do that is say, this program is going into it's a tough program but it's going to lead to growth. because if you don't have programs leading to growth, the local population in the country will not buy off on it. so i think it's a very, very important that we have that. take a look at some of these cases which are really, i would say sort of serious your greece is in this. right now they're going into its sixth year of recession.
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this last year probably ended up six and a half, 7% negative growth. next year they're talking for the 5% negative growth. that's not a recession. that's depression. when you take some of the unemployment figures, they have 107% of debt to gdp and growing. so it's very important that you convince the population that growth is there. sixth, i think obviously is very important, a point which is strong political leadership. if you have strong political leadership you can sell these programs and you can make them work. but that means you've got to have people running the country. policymakers who believe in structural reforms, privatization, tax reforms, budget cuts, labor mobility, and they need to be competitive both internally and externally. if you don't have, if you don't
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have plans like that you will not get them back to growth anytime soon. so it's very, very important that you do that. seven, the point is the private sector. and i think this is a problem. because at the beginning there was no interest in the case of greece and some of these other countries involved in the private sector. and, in fact, it was a when things got so bad that greece called upon the private sector with the european union. the european central bank and the international monetary fund, to really get the private sector involved. and there you had a big haircut that could've been dealt with earlier. it would have been as bad and now they just have to do another debt buyback problem, operation, which is still a problem. so i think the idea getting the private sector involved early on, and we show this both in latin america and asia, the asian financial crisis. korea has been a good example.
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i think is very, very i think important. so those are the lessons learned from elsewhere that the europeans are now just starting to utilize into a fourth year. but what needs to be done going forward? that's what really is i think important. i think three things need to be done. first of all you need to get this banking union that's been talked about most of last year actually accomplished. because you need to break the tide between sovereign and banks. you've got to get the banks back to lending, and we still don't see that sufficiently in europe. and so you need to get this banking union a range. originally it was supposed to be, i was a questionnaire on july 26 when mario drug he made the famous historic statement of the to do everything possible with the ecb to make sure that the euro got through this problem.
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i was designated to ask you about the banking union. and at that point he was there optimistic. he thought the banking union could be worked on, in place in the first quarter of this year. well, now they've moved it to the first quarter hopefully in 2014 and you still have argument somehow it is going to be done. so you need to put a timeline on this and then you've got to adhere to it. but to get the banking system back with similar regulations throughout the eurozone is absolutelabsolutel absolutely necessary. it is key to the recovery of your. second of all is a plan that he talked about on july 26 in london last year. which is the outright monetary transaction, whereas the ecb would buy bonds from the country's in trouble, along with the european stability mechanism under certain conditions.
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in other words, certain conditionality. now, the ecb is going to put up that conditionality. they have enough on there. and so it will probably be international monetary fund, but they haven't really agreed what kind of conditionality they're going to put up and who's going to do it. now the candidate for this should be spain, but the prime minister of spain told me several months ago, he would only go into this program if there was no additional conditionality other than what he is taken because he is thought you taken enough in spain. and second of all, if the ecb could prove to him that by taking this on that the spreads or the costs of issuing bonds would go down significantly. and as you see, nothing has been done there, but what
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psychologically it has helped the market to know that this program is there but they fully got to make it work and show got to with the condition of is going to be. the next one is something which is a favorite, and i agree with chancellor merkel with germany, and that is to need a fiscal pact. and this was agreed on in march last year. you need 12 of the 17 countries to prove. island was one of the first to approve it in may. and it's very, very important because when you form, when the eurozone was formed it was formed with a monetary union which is the european central bank, in what they called a treaty. the treaty was to limit deficit to gdp to 3%. and guess who was the first to to break it? the two largest members, germany and france. and so she is adamant that this fiscal pact go through, and i think she's right.
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because you cannot move forward with the eurozone unless you have a fiscal pact to match the monetary union. and a lot of work has to be done on that but i think these are the three things that are necessary to get the eurozone and most of europe back the growth. and it's not going to be easy. and so i think i would just say to you that the banking system in europe, and again a number of you know it very well, will issues getting himself involved in it unfortunately, but in europe the countries and businesses depend more on the banking system than they do here in the united states. why? because with a more developed capital market. and so that it was developed capital market, so although it is starting to develop more rapidly. and so the key as i said to getting them back to growth is
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the banking system. and so all the things i've mentioned here are very important. european central bank has put in the ltros, three-year loans at 1%. they did that a year ago. and now they've done the omb. they've lessened the amount of collateral necessary to par with european central banks. and the banking system there has been shedding assets because they had to raise additional capital. and they've income stream more on that been thinking, unfortunately, and a lot of you in this room are aware of that. and some of the benefactors of that, beneficiaries are japanese banks have been buying portfolios and investors like will up on the market. but we've got to get the european banks back up to lending. that is key to all of what i have said here. then i would just say a few words about, and again, firm
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timelines do this because if you don't have firm timelines it won't happen, and the markets won't believe. i would just throw in another thing is that i, frankly think that the euro is kind of strong come if you really want to improve your export base. and i think at some point in time you've got to get the euro down to the dollar, to a weaker euro, mainly to help for exports and to help spur growth, which is exactly what new prime minister is trying to do in japan. and i think one of things i want to mention that he is very i think is going to push and i think is very correct is trade within asia. and he's got to opportunities. what has been there on the table for a while and is clouded by territorial disputes, which
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would be japan, korea and china. and i think that it's very important that this go ahead with the second and third largest economies and the 10th largest economy in korea in the world. and he has said he really wants to move ahead on the. so i really hope so but, of course, it's clouded by these territorial disputes. the other is something, and trade as was mentioned as a subject that terry mcgraw has shown tremendous leadership and over the last decade. and we now have something new on the table, not so new was announced almost two years ago, which is the trans-pacific partnership. and i think japan should be part of that. it will take a courageous decision of abe because there's a lot of people entrenched in japan did not want to be a part of the. but i think if he can do the things that we talked about before, he's announced the fiscal stimulus, pushing the
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bank of japan on the monetary stimulus. it into the structural reforms i discussed, and push on these do, northeast economic bloc and the japan pacific trade agreement i think this would be a big help to depend on exports. and as it all now, japan is very depend on exports. and you need to stop the hollowing out of industry and japan moving elsewhere. so i think these are key now. at the end of the day as we know that a major territorial disputes with china and with korea. and i think, i look favorably, the new prime minister came when sending a representative to create to talk to them, the new president-elect of korea. and hopefully something can be worked out. in this area as you know, a senior delegation led by kirk campbell, the outgoing assistant secretary for asian affairs in
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the state department, is basically in japan and korea right now trying to see if the united states can have a helping hand. because that's the u.s. is too big allies in the northwest pacific. the territorial dispute with china is a thing going to be much more difficult, but japan as you know is one of the biggest foreign investors in china. so it's not just japan that suffers on to this. also china. so i'm hoping when president xi jinping basically takes over fully in march, that he and prime minister abe can work things out. it's not going to be an easy job but i think it's very important. and for the united states, this is most important. to get this trade moving and get
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our allies working together. and so i tend to be an optimist, like terri, and that's why we worked together on all these trade deals. and it's been a long difficult battle. on korea in latin america and all the others, but at the end of the day i think it's worthwhile. i hope we'll be seeing a new dawn in korea in this regard. so we have new leadership in china, new leadership in korea nucleanew leadership in japan. so hopefully they will be able to see some of these things through because i think it's very important not just for asia, not just for these countries but, frankly, or the world given what's happening elsewhere, particularly in europe. so having said that, kerry, i think we should go and have our little conversation. a few very much. [applause]
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>> here's the book in japanese. >> and the book is in portugue portuguese. it's in simplified chinese, korean, and now japanese. i think that, unicom the dissertation we just heard from bill, unicom is so lucid and so straightforward, that you sort of grab this notion of why didn't we start implement on some of these things occur and all that. and we've seen to get such complications. so the first question bill, i think i'd like to ask you and i'll ask you a couple questions
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and throw it open and go in any direction anybody wants, you know that. because we were talking about the lack of coordination and cooperation in relationships, and that people were going it alone, especially in the european crisis, and the like. now, you had this long-standing relationship. could utah code about that relationship? and from the book's standpoint, who are some of the world leaders that you dealt with that have the most positive influence in terms of relationship development in getting things done? >> well, walter was an internationalist first class, and he expanded citibank significantly overseas. he was a great friend of japan. used to go to japan regularly, and i think he, along with paul volcker on the public sector side, where major mentors of mind. and so i think it's fair to say,
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and you have seen this, that walter was the greatest thinker of his age, and that's what citibank is going back to i think at this point in time. we have a lot of present city bankers, former city bankers in this audience. i know who agree with me. but as far as working with walter, he's the one who got me involved in all of this, and john reed later on. were both i think significant world financial leaders. as far as having talked with a lot of people like, i think meeting mondello, having dealt with a number of cases, spent an hour in 1980 with fidel castro. he wanted my advice on how to restructure the cuban debt. and he said i can speak to you about that because we nationalize you in cuba, one of the first time who did was nationalist the foreign banks, and then you offset our
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reserves. so we're kind of evening. this was in nicaragua. certainly fascinating. i mean, i could run through so many people. one of the sessions with mondello, i was asked to tell mr. mole gabi, who was then president of zimbabwe and as the president of zimbabwe that he used all his time. he wasn't very happy with that. because of that i was able to do that our secretary of commerce ron brown asked me if i would cheer at the 50th anniversary in admissions the africa lunch that the us was getting at that time, which it did because he said look, if you can do that, then you can take everything else. so i mean, that lot of people. you mentioned secretaries of treasury here in the united states.
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certainly the very sense of the fed and central bankers i think worldwide. i think one of the things we need to see more of getting to the point that a now he wanted me to talk about was unique leadership. and we haven't seen the tough leadership in europe that we need to see to get out of crisis. we were very lucky in the case of the latin american debt crisis, that we had paul volcker at the fed and web -- two of the most outstanding people, public sector people i've ever known. the world people forget now, it's a long ago, the early '80s was about to go under. in fact, they compared it to moving deck chairs on the titanic. that worked out. i think nick brady with his breed plan felt we had really real leadership, and i think that's what we are missing in many parts of the world including europe, where,
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although i must say at the ecb, mario draghi have shown that. i have seen a lot of the policymakers and policy makers have not. i think we need to see that worldwide, in our own country. just witness this discussion that went on at every -- whatever you want to call it at the end of the year. and we have sort of the best to come yet because we haven't decided on the debt ceiling and spending. and so this is where we really need leadership, which we were used to. i tend to be an optimist about the united states because people gave up on us on vietnam, on the watergate crisis, and we came charging back. i think we will do here. but it would be nice if we didn't have to go to the cliff each time to do it. >> and again, when you start talking about the kind of relationships and the kind of leadership, you know, we still seem to have this atmosphere where people talk more at each
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other than trying to find some common ground, some common goal in getting it down. you broach the whole growth of growth and jobs, and that is the answer to all of us. you also talk a lot about contagion on this one. we all sensed that if the european situation got worse, and they represent 23% of world gdp, the effect it's going to have on the united states, india, brazil, it's going to be real. and so with 40% of export coming here to the united states and so forth, all of a sudden we started to see the effect on her own growth, and india's growth, brazil's growth and china. now we've got another 21% of both gdp, the united states which is under, and if we don't resolve some of the debt ceiling and some the spending cuts, when
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you get into some of the fiscal order that you're talking about, you're going to have that weight on it. and even though you have proposed a lot of folks with japan in terms of some of the political leadership, they are still at negative growth with 7%. so now you're up to 50% or so of world gdp that is a drag on the economy. how do you look at the broadest sense of contagion as it relates to emerging market growth, developing country growth, with 50% of world gdp possibly in a situation? >> i think the trade figures tell at all whether you agree with that or not. i think the trade figures show what's happening. and there's no doubt picking one of the countries you mentioned, china. i mean, china for the last 20 years has been double-digit growth. last year they had one of the worst years in recent memory, we will see the final figures
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coming out. it didn't get below 7% which i view as a hard landing. but when you move from double-digit down to seven something are sent back, and one of the major drivers of that is the largest export market is europe. they didn't believe that europe was getting into the problem and take so long to get out of it. and, of course, the second largest market is us. and so they help get the world out of the grid recession by just tremendous sting this program. we're not going to see that again in china. so i think that you've got to have things worked on at the g20 because the only g20 summit that i attended, two of them, was london when the world was in town going into the great depression, not the great recession. and they took certain steps to ameliorate that and move ahead, to stimulate growth. and so i think that this mixture is going to be tough. and i think you since complacency in europe. it's interesting that one of the
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real drivers in brussels, he came out with a statement the other say -- the other day saying complacency and i think he's right on. judge of all these people saying mario draghi made that comment in july 26 with the markets have gone. the markets can be right but the markets can be wrong. and i think that not having been able to do the three things i said with a fixed timeline basically system how long as you're going to be stuck here? and so i think that this is a real question. you mentioned india also. andy was a 8.5, 9% growth. brought below 6% we have these major economies where they are. i think you need a good dose of not only fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus but you've got to back that up with structural reform and i think deregulation. and i think that's really key
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for the world to get out of this problem that it is in today. because we agree, growth and jobs. if you can't show the path to grow, that's why i use -- because it is a pathway to growth. korea 1998, came into power, a man of the left. .. >> i don't know how many restructurings. and he decided enough is enough
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as finance minister. and he said we've got to get this debt deal done. we worked on it, got it done. within hours he announced the real plan which took brazil out of hyperinflation, and brazil's had its ups and downs since, but it's a different brazil today than in 1994 with fe man doe -- fernando cardoso. the last example i would give is turkey. my friend, al durvis, was called in to be finance minister. and i worked with him on that particular plan, because we had to convince the u.s. treasury to support the imf. but he put in reforms, and he told the people of turkey, look, you're going to have of to take this us aer the orty or for x period of time, but we will lead you to growth, and he did. look where turkey's come after that. i just use these three examples;
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one in the middle east, one in latin america, one many asia where they were able to do this. and this is an example of leadership to do what's necessary. i mean, in korea we got this done in a couple of months, and four months later they were raising -- which is a lot of money in 998 -- $5 billion in the international marketses because they just took a decision and went at it. >> there's a lot of these things that you were talking about, the leadership, political leadership, timing and the banking union, getting the banks back into the lending and the fiscal pac in those components on that part. you know, just as an an aside, in talking about another country, russia, you know, russia desperately wants to reintroduce itself to the rest of the world, and not in some of the bane that it has been. they've got this opportunity with the g20 coming up in september.
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crystal ball. do you see anything from a coordination standpoint from the g20 coming out of this, and do you see russia's image changing? >> well, i think this is a big opportunity for the prime minister to show what could happen in russia. we'll just have to see. because they're sitting on top of all these oil reserves. we know where the price of oil is. but there are, as you know, there are a lot of problems. and so we have to see whether, you know, russia can show that it's taking some of these reforms it needs to take, and we'll see. and this is a perfect opportunity to do so. so far i think, as i said, the only g20 meeting that really did anything positive was the one in london, and i give credit to gordon brown. that was his greatest moment, i think, at that particular time.
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to do it. i mean, you've had very well organized meetings. i was in korea, there's nobody organizes like the koreans. it was a great, organized meeting. all they talked about was currency wars, and, you know, nothing much came out of it. then the one in france with sarkozy, it rained the whole time, and it was sort of like raining on the parade because it was a disaster, nothing happened. although there were a lot of nice intentions coming out of mexico on the last g20, it's not clear what we're going to see. one of the areas i didn't want get into here is this whole question of regulation of financial institutions. and this is one of the mandates of the g20. the other financial stability board in basel. and if they don't get this right and get a level playing field worldwide, we're going to have more regulatory arbitrage than we had before. and, you know, this is a worldwide problem, not just a european problem. because here in the united states we have dodd-frank. in england we have vickers, and
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then in europe we have a lincoln report, and all sorts of variations. switzerland has its own series. and the whole idea was the g20 through the financial be stability board and the basel committee were going to come through with a series of amendments and raising capital and liquidity standards on a group versal, global -- universal, global cooperative basis, coordinated basis that would avoid what happened in the great recession so the next one's not worse. but the record's very mixed there. >> let me take a break here, and let's open it up, and let's start right over here. >> jim bixler, rutgers university. lots of economists such as your friend rudy dornbush from mit that you mentioned are believers that competition is the hallmark
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of a country thriving, growing including jobs, etc. and lots of economists each before the euro was instituted argued that they needed europe more competition rather than what a coordinated currency, etc. and they predicted a bad woes for europe under the euro. you've mentioned a lot of the problems on the flip side of competition, namely regulation. give us your perspective in terms of competition, regulation in the euro and government
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coordination. >> i think it's a very good question, and a lot needs to be done there. >> thank you. >> and i think at the time that the euro was put together and my good friend bob mundell, nobel prize winner, had different views about how it was going to work out than what's happened. that was not in his eyed -- idea book. i keep going back to greece because that's an extreme misthere when you take a look at the unemployment rate between, you know, 58% of youth between, you know, under 25, it's just incredible. even in the great depression here we didn't have that. and overall unemployment level of 26%. and so you need that all through
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southern europe. i must say that victor who's the finance minister in portugal, and we have a portuguese expert sitting here, who is a professor of economics in portugal has tried to really drive that home, the need for portugal to be more competitive. and they've made, they've made a lot of progress there. not enough. but i think one of the things that i'm hoping we see out of all these countries whether it be portugal, spain, italy, all of the countries that i've mentioned here, that we get more in the way of competitiveness. just take a look at france. now, france is the second largest economy in the eurozone, and it's very important that you see some of these reforms that are talked about happen, or we're going to get france stuck in stagnation if not recession. and so i go back to -- and as i
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said, there's a japanese equivalent to it, but the chinese expression, this is a great opportunity for the europeans to do correctly what they haven't done before. now, whether they'll pick up on it, we'll see. but certainly just like ben bernanke can't solve our problems here in the united states,al mario draghi can't solve the eurozone's problems either. so i think the point you're making on competition are key to be worked on at this moment. and you can drive a lot of things through now in the eurozone because of the economic situation. >> will there be a euro in 10 or 20 years? >> i think hey they'll make it through. i think you can question who the members are going to be. i think, obviously, in the case of greece nobody wants to do anything because you've got elections coming up in germany in september with chance hour merkel.
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chancellor merkel. and everyone wants to hold it together. but at the end of the day, it's going to very much depend on whether greece can implement the programs they've agreed to. and i think there will be a euro, the question is what it'll look like and what the membership will be. because, you know, originally there was a big school of thought saying that the euro just should have been the northern tier of the membership, it shouldn't have taken in the so-called southern tier countries that have problems. and in the next year or two, i think, are really key. and this idea of complacency, and i've had some talks with -- [inaudible] actually, he was good enough to buy my book last year and read it, and we've discussed it. i was with him a month ago, and i think he's one to have more thoughtful -- one of the more thoughtful people in the bureaucracy in brussels. and i think when he starts talking about complacency, and i should say yunker came out also.
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i think the members of the marketplace are that the worst is over for europe, don't worry, it's just a matter of time. >> [inaudible] >> microphone? >> did everyone hear that? i think you have to -- >> did the u.k. make the right decision in not being a member? >> well, the prime minister at the time certainly thinks so. and as you know, cameron osborn is sort of, young mentorees of his. so you can argue that back and forth at this particular point in time. the question is if you had a referendum in the u.k. today which you're not going to have probably for another couple years, what would the vote be? and most polls think it would be to pull out if there's not some sort of restructuring of the
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u.k.'s role. certainly without the u.k., the eurozone can continue to exist. i think chancellor merkel certainly wanted to keep in the e.u. because they never went into the eurozone, but they are an active member of the e.u.. she wants to keep them in. >> time is getting a little tight here, so let's go to two questions very quickly. right here and then right over here. >> do you think it would enhance economic opportunities in asia if we had more asian members of congress? >> that's an interesting thought. of course, you had some very senior members of congress, in fact, the senior senator just died, ipway, who had -- inouye, who had tremendous clout there. and you're seeing more and more asian members elected, male and female. and i think you'll continue to see that.
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>> who else is there besides -- [inaudible] >> well, you have, i think there are several. you have one who's a korean, you have one korean-american, and i think you'll see more going forward because you've got a lot of asian-americans who are mayors, you know? in major cities. and i think the answer is, i think would be very helpful to have or more asian-americans as members of congress. and, of course, if you had a governor who's now our ambassador, who is our secretary of commerce who is now our ambassador to beijing. and if you believe the chinese on the street, the most popularword of think in -- popular ambassador of any in china today, so popular that some members of the chinese government think he's too popular. and he's a good friend of
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terry's and also of mine. so i would hope to see of that going forward. >> at the time of the formation of the euro, the three-tier euro was considered but not adopted. an unfortunate result of this has been that the mediterranean countries so largely dependent on tourism have become, well, they're really not competitive. is it time to reconsider the three-tier euro in that an important effect would be a very substantial developing of the mediterranean cups, and that should -- mediterranean countries, and that should result in job growth, economic
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growth simply from near end increased tourism? >> well, i think it's fair to say that his to have chi when i talk about latin america and also the asian financial crisis, korea as an example, i would news ya also, is that one of the great aids they had was the ability to devalue and to push exports. and what do we have? we have the euro at one of its strong points today which is one of the reasons why i'm an advocate for the european central bank to drop interest rates which would, i think, push the euro lower and help on exports. it always hangs out there, you know, that's the biggest argument why greece should leave the euro, because their currency is misaligned for a country like greece. i do not see you're going to have a two-tiered or
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three-tiered system. i think if you really are going to have a new alignment, it'll be -- some members will be there and others won't. and so i think what is important, though, and more and more i think the politicians are realizing this, the policymakers also in brussels, the bureaucracy, you cannot just sweat it out on austerity. you've got to have plans or for growth. and that was a message i took to portugal when i was there. in june last year. because if you don't show that there is growth potential -- and i should say portugal's increased its exports substantial -- but you need to have a plan for growth. now, devaluation alone won't give you that because you have to be competitive, you have to have deregulation. those are even more important than a devaluation, because a devaluation only lasts so long,
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whereas if you make the major structural programs in deregulation -- and this is a real, i think, going to be challenge for prime minister abi because you've had 14 of these stimulus programs since the late 9 t 0s -- 1990s in japan, and none of them have really dope the job. so you have to bundle this up in a packet and put them through. so that's the best way i can answer you, and i think that where the europeans have fallen down, this goes back to the questions we've already had here is they didn't put the emphasis on being competitive, they didn't put the emphasis on driving the fiscal side along with the monetary side, and they allowed it to happen and look the way. the other way. now they're paying the price, but so is the world. >> ladies and gentlemen, i'm afraid, you know, i've got the
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bad job of having to say i think we better hold it there on this one. >> while i still have my voice. >> yes, you do. and, bill, what an outstanding presentation. not only are you an outstanding world leader, you're the banker to the world. [laughter] [applause] >> every weekend booktv offers 48 hours of programming focused on nonfiction authors and books. watch it here on c-span2. >> so this is a poem that i actually first heard in turkey. come, come, whoever you are, wandering, worshiper, lover of leaving, it doesn't matter. ours is not a caravan of despair. come even if you have broken your vows a thousand times. come yet again, come, come. couple rps that this is meaningful to me.
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it's actually in the book, "sacred ground," and whenever i look at the statue of liberty, right, this great, this beautiful woman of welcoming, the description is bring -- the inscription is bring me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to break free. it's this notion of america in radical, welcoming opennesses. bring your traditions, plant your seeds in american soil and let them grow into institutions and congregations that are welcoming and open to others. and so that spirit of welcoming and opennesses that i think is at the heart of the mesh tradition, i think it's at the heart of islam as well. and nobody articulates that better or more beautifully than rumi. >> so, um, i need to confess that i get emotional when i talk with people like eboo about the issues that we're going to be addressing tonight. particularly the issue of interfaith relations and also the issue of the idea of america.
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um, right after 9/11 several of us, a lot of us gathered at a mosque here near usc. and i heard a sentence that changed my life. and it was this: to be religious in the 21st century is to be interreluscious. interreligious. and it is that dedication that laws me to eboo and the way he thinks. so, um, i'm going to apologize only once for being emotional about these things. [laughter] if i get choked up, you'll just say you can chalk it up to that. but one of the great moments in his book is his telling about the genesis moment for this book. so, eboo, would you? >> sure. so this is actually ramadan 2010. it's august of that year, so i'm waking up at around 4 a.m., and i'm having my last meal before doing my prayers that begin the
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time of fasting. and it's at that point that i like to, as muslims do, to raze more from the quran or realize from rumi or just additional time of centering and meditation. muslims believe god listens extra closely during those dawn hours. but instead if people remember what was happening in august of 2010, it was the crazy discourse we were having around cordoba house or the ground zero mosque. so i'm not reading rumi, i'm not reading the can quran, i'm literally on right-wing hate web site after right-wing hate web site trying to anticipate the storyline of the day because every day there are new attacks on the founders of cordoba house. and there's new word about this being a terror command center, etc., etc. these are people that i've known for many years, people who i admire who have spoken of building an institution supported by the muslim community that would be of service to the entire nation. and cordoba house was the fruit
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of their vision. >> you can watch this and other programs online at booktv.org. >> we created a platform that we call a digital health feedback system, and the main components of that platform are an ingestible sensor that turns on when with you swallow it and communicates through your body. it sends information to a wearable patch that you wear on your torso. it collects information about the medicines you swallow and your physiology, things like your heart rate, rest payings, activity, temperature, a lot of things actually. what we call a panel of physiological wellness metrics, and then it communicates via blue tooth with the cell phone you carry and allows us to take that data to the cloud, process it and send it back to you as an application that can help you manage your own health. >> i think we're at an inflection point. we have had all these ip cental, i amazing changes over the last five year, and now we're really poised to make some great leaps
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in these complex diseases. our understanding of cancer the last five years has dwarfed the last 25 and the next ten years will take us into some amazing advances. >> the latest developments from in this year's ces international consumer electronics show tonight on "the communicators" at 8 eastern on c-span2. >> mother jones washington bureau chief david corn. his most recent book is called "showdown: the inside story of how obama fought back against boehner, cantor and the tea party." is the showdown referring to any specific incident or just politics in general, mr. corn? >> guest: well, kind of both. the week is a we -- the book is a behind the scenes account of what happened in the white house after the november 2010 election when the republicans and the tea party really knocked barack obama for a loop and took control of the house. and then everything that happened after that. the tax cut deal, the big fights
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over the budget and the debt ceiling and deficit reduction, also the bin laden raid and what happened in egypt and libya. and so i'm looking at how obama made the decisions he made and took, why he took the actions he took in that very perilous time politically, but i also explain how this is all done in a way to set up the 2012 campaign that we just went through. he had a theory after he took that big hit in 2010, he had a theory that he could make the 2012 race a choice not just between him and mitt romney, but a choice between different ideologies, different approaches to government, between different sets of visions and values. and everything he did in that time frame he kept trying to tether to this big idea he had about a choice. and when i wrote the book, of course, we can't know how things would end up on november 6, 2012. but, um, i looked at how he developed his governing strategy
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and his electoral strategy, and it really culminated in november. so this is the back story to what happened in this presidential campaign. >> host: david corn, "showdown" is his most recent book. we're here at the national press club. >> here is a look at some upcoming book fairs and festivals happening around the country.
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>> please let us know about book fairs and festivals in your area, and we'll add them to our list. post them to our wall at facebook.com/booktv or e-mail us at booktv@c-span.org. ♪ ♪ >> if we turn away from the needs of others, we align ourselves with those forces which are bringing about this suffering. >> the white house is a bully pulpit, and you ought to take
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advantage of it. >> obesity in this country is nothing short of a public health crisis. >> i think i just had little antennas that went up and told me when somebody had their own agenda. >> so much influence in that office, it'd be just a shame to waste it. >> i think they serve as a window on the past to what was going on with american women. >> she becomes the chief confidant. she's really, in a way, the only one in the world he can trust. >> many of the women who were first ladies, they were writers, a lot of them were writers, journalists. they wrote books. >> they are, in many cases, quite frankly, more interesting as human beings than their husbands. if only because they are not, first and foremost, defined and consequently limited by political ambition. >> dolly was both a socially adept and politically savvy. >> dolly madison loved every minute of it. mrs. monroe hated it.
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absolutely hated it. >> she warned her husband, you know, you can't rule without including what women want and what women have to contribute. >> and during the statement you were a little breathless, and there was too much looking down, and i think it was of a little too fast. not enough change of pace. >> yes, ma'am. >> she's probably the most tragic of all of our first lady cans. they never should have married. >> she later wrote in her memoir that she said i myself never made any decision. i only decided what was important and when to present it to my husband. now, you stop and think about how much power that is, it's a lot of power. >> part of the battle against cancer is to fight the fear that accompanies the disease. >> she transformed the way we look at these bugaboos and made
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it possible for countless people to survive and to flourish as a result. i don't know how many presidents realistically have that kind of impact on the way we live our lives. >> just walking around the white house grounds, i am constantly reminded about all of the people who have lived there before and particularly all of the women. >> the first ladies, their private and public lives. c-span's teaming up with the white house historical association for a first of its kind, original series for television. first ladies: influence and image, airing over two seasons. season one begins presidents' day at 9 p.m. eastern and pacific on c-span, c-span radio and c-span.org. >> you've been watching booktv, 48 hours of book programming beginning saturday morng